マカオ:トランジットビザ規制緩和 政府のカジノ政策転換観測 株価急騰

BLOOMBERGなど各社報道によれば、マカオ政府はトランジットビザによるマカオ滞在規制を7月から緩和すると通達。株式市場では政府によるカジノの適正化政策が転換期を迎えた、あるいはこれ以上の引き締め政策の懸念が後退したとの観測が広がり、カジノ事業者の株価が急騰している。

マカオ政府は昨年2014年7月1日より、トランジットビザ規制を強化。それ以前は、トランジットビザの滞在は一回当たり7日、次回利用までのクーリングオフ期間30日間であったが、それぞれ5日、60日に変更した。そして、第三国へ渡航する書面の証拠を必要とした。
今回の発表はそれを2014年7月以前に戻す内容。ただし

このトランジットビザは、高頻度でマカオを訪れるプレミアムマス、VIP、およびジャンケットの中国側エージェントでよく利用されいると言われる。
2014年7月の規制強化は2014年6月以降の市場縮小要因の一つであった。
ちなみに、市場縮小要因を整理すると、1)中国政府の反腐敗政策、2)渡航ビザコントロール、3)禁煙政策、4)金融商品市場の低調(による富裕層の余剰資金の縮小)、など。

実際にマカオ、中国政府の政策スタンスが転換したか、どうかは想像の域を出ない。
ただし、2015年後半のマカオ市場にはこれまでよりも楽観できる要因があることは事実。
1)2015年後半には前年のバーが低下し、マイナス幅縮小、あるいはプラス転換が容易となる。
2)市場縮小要因の影響がおおむね出尽くし。
3)2015年1月以降の月次市場規模はMOP20,000mn前後(約3100億円前後)で落ち着いている。
4)コタイ地区の新規大型IR群の集客効果。
5)VIP主体からマス主体へのモデルへの転換が進展。IRではVIPではなく、マスが利益源。

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