マカオ:6月のカジノ市場はYoY36%減。抵抗ラインMOP20bn底割れ 強弱感対立

マカオ市場は6月単月ではMOP17,355mn(約2673億円)、YoY36%減、1-6月累計ではMOP121,645mn(約1兆8733億円)、YoY37%減となった。

2014年6月以来、13ヶ月連続のマイナスとなった。単月のマイナス幅は2月が49%で最大で、3月が39%、4月が39%、5月が37%、6月が36%減。

月次市場規模は1-5月までおおむねMOP20,000mn前後で落ち着いて推移したが、6月はMOP20,000mnを大きく割り込んだ。事前の証券会社の観測でもMOP20,000mn割れの可能性が指摘されていたが、現実となった。
抵抗ラインの底割れはネガティブな印象であろう。

足元の市場縮小要因は、1)中国政府の反腐敗政策、2)渡航ビザコントロール、3)禁煙政策、4)金融商品市場の低調(による富裕層の余剰資金の縮小)、など。
1日にはマカオ政府はトランジットビザによるマカオ滞在規制を7月から緩和すると通達。ビザ要因に関しては収束しよう。

2015年後半のマカオ市場の見通しは強弱感が対立。足元は厳しいが、これまでよりも楽観できる要因があることも事実。
1)2015年後半には前年のバーが低下し、マイナス幅縮小、あるいはプラス転換が容易となる
2)市場縮小要因の影響がおおむね出尽くし
3)コタイ地区の新規大型IR群の集客効果
4)7月のトランジットビザ規制緩和

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